التخطيط للنمو الذكي لاستخدامات الارض الحضرية باستخدام برمجيات نظم المعلومات الجغرافية وباعتماد نموذج CA-MARKOV (مدينة أريحا حالة دراسية)

Date
2020-06-04
Authors
دلال مصطفى كمال زين
Dalal Mustafa Kamal Zein
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جامعة القدس
Abstract
Urban population accounts for 76% of the world's population, which means that more than half of the world's population lives in cities and is continuously increasing. Cities are considered to have limited space to accommodate the continuous and incoming population growth and the accompanying increase in urbanization, facilities, services and infrastructure. Therefore, this study examined the problem of the expansion and extension of Jericho city with its limited area like other cities and the existence of multiple obstacles that limit its growth and the extension of its lands, which in turn leads to encroachment on green and agricultural lands and thus works on the depletion of natural resources and urban problems, so we need to find Planning methods for intelligent growth of land use in the city, space utilization and conservation of natural resources. Therefore, this study aims to identify the change in land use in the city of Jericho between 2006 to 2018, and to identify the factors that have affected the land use change in the city of Jericho for successive years, and to predict the map of future land use for the year 2030 for the city of Jericho, and provide smart growth proposals To plan the uses of land in the city. This study followed the descriptive, quantitative, temporal, spatial and cartographic method of collecting, processing and analyzing primary and secondary data related to the study objectives. The most important results of this study were a change in the areas of land use in the city of Jericho during the two periods, the first between 2006 and 2012, and the second between 2012 and 2018, and the impact of several factors on the change of land use in the city, as well as the decrease of green and agricultural areas until 2030 and the increase of built-up areas And the possibility of applying the method of intelligent growth in the future planning of the city of Jericho. Therefore, the study recommends the adoption of modern techniques of GIS software in integration with modeling in order to plan the uses of urban land and the development of future scenarios, and the need to apply the method of intelligent growth of the city, and recommends the need to preserve the green and agricultural areas and natural resources surrounding the city for its environmental importance And economic
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