تقدير حجم الاقتصاد الخفي في فلسطين
وائل صبجي عبد الحميد العزة
Wael Subhi Abdulhamed Alazzeh
This Study aims to estimate the size of underground economy in Palestine from (2008-2017) and identify underground economy and economic development and how they relate to each other. It also aim to make recommendations that will assist the Palestinian government and decision makers in making suitable economic and political decisions that will address the underground economy and achieve the economic development. To archive the goals of the study, the empirical methodology was used. For this reason, needed data was collected for the model of this study (The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCPS) and Palestinian Monetary Fund) during the ten years of study in quarterly. The sample size is 40 observation. The data was statistically analyzed using the programme of (EViews) (Econometric Views) after it had been collected. The study shows the following results and the most significant ones are: The increasing size of underground economy took place 2008 and 2010 to reach 26.8%. After that, it declined downwards until the end of 2017.During years, its rate to GDP has been 18.37% and its average size has been (USD 518.7232) million. According to this rate, the underground economy was fairly good compared to its size and rate in the neighboring countries. According to results, the highest rate of underground economy has been in the year of 2010, which was estimated at 28.6% of GDP with sum of (USD 2676.227) million. On the level of quarters, it has been the highest during the first quarter of 2010, which was estimated at 34.57% with sum of (USD 821.819) million. In 2017 has witnessed the least rate of GDP among all the years and the rate of underground economy was estimated at 12.71% with sum of (USD 1732.628) million. On the level of quarters, the fourth quarter of the year of 2017 was the least in terms of rates and the rate in that quarter was estimated at 10.16%. The size of underground economy during the first quarter of the year of 2008 was estimated with sum of (USD 275.036) million. The results showed that all the variables of the study model are statistically significant except the variable of governmental salaries. This means that the money the governmental employees receive does not contribute to the underground economy and they hardly fulfill their basic needs. Regarding the expected signs, the results had not lived up to expectations of study since they showed that the increase in GDP per capita does not decrease the size of underground economy. The study concluded with a set of recommendations and the most important ones are that the Palestinian government should care for the sector of the underground economy by conducting studies that show its economic benefit and future horizons. Those studies are needed to provide the necessary data about this sector and to easily facilitate monitoring it.The Palestinian government should prepare a strategic plan so that it could put an end to the phenomena of underground economy by designing policies and laws suiting the Palestinian context. It should also seek to integrate this kind of economy in the formal sector instead of closing it. This integration could be achieved through a clear plan. The government should raise the awareness of the community about this issue by conducting raise awareness campaigns through which it can urge people to necessarily adhere to laws and regulations for the public interest. The tax policy should be reconsidered since it negatively impacts the economic and social aspects .Reconsidering tax policy will promote the status of underground economy and motivate citizens and banks towards investment through savings deposits that positively impact the economy and decrease the size of underground economy.