اتجاهات تغير المؤشرات البيئية الفلسطينية (المياه والارض) حتى عام 2030 اعتمادا على تغيرها في الفترة 1995-2012

Abstract

Given that Palestine is continually exposed to social variables, economic and political, the main objective of this study is to identify the Palestinian environmental indicators and trends in the future under different scenarios that may arise in Palestine according to the political, social and economic terms, and in order to achieve this objective previous literature on the subject of environmental indicators has been reviewed, with a focus on indicators of water and earth, the general direction of the movement of these two indicators was monitored, based on the indicators of behavior in 1995-2012. The study aimed through descriptive approach and analytical style to answer the question what are the direction and the general tendency of the indices of water and the land until 2030, and what is the reflection of these changes on the ability of the Palestinian authority to carry out sustainable development plans, for this hypothesis an interview was performed with a sample target of experts and local institutions have been selected for their interest in the subject of study, in addition a comparison between the conclusions of the study quantitative and qualitative and the results of the mathematical model WEAP has been done. The study was performed in the year 2013/2014, the conclusion is that there is a negative tendency significantly affect the economic and social conditions for each of the water index and the land, especially with existence of the occupation, in the other hand there are weak possibilities of Palestinian authority to deal with these two indicators scenario, these possibilities will be still limited to stop the deterioration especially if Israel still isolate areas (c), and there are negative consequences for the tow indicators in the scenario of Palestinian satae without Jerusalem or the Jordan valley, where PA will lose a percentage of (6.4%) (11.7%) of land and (41%) (37.7%) of water.