الطاقات المعطلة والمستلبة في قطاع الصناعة التحويلية وتأثيرها على التنمية الاقتصادية في فلسطين
حيدر رمضان حسين حجه
Haidar Ramadan Husien Hajjeh
Given the importance of the industry sector, and its role in strengthening the sustainable development, its positive impact on the economic and social development, reducing the economic burdens resulting from the deformation of the production structure in Palestine, the search aims to highlight the most important constraints, challenges, and the distortions of structural productivity inherited from the occupation, which form an obstacle to the development of the Palestinian industrial sector through the diagnosis of key indicators and their impact on both the total and sub-total levels and to determine the general characteristics, and the inoperative and usurped capacities in the manufacturing sector as a result of policies and practices of the Israeli occupation and its influence on the development in Palestine. Moreover, it aims to develop a strategy and appropriate policies capable of leading an advanced industrial sector that leads the material and social construction of the Palestinian society, and to conceptualize the future of Palestine. The study is made up of five chapters: the first one dealt with the background of the study in terms of its objectives and related questions. Chapter II dealt with the particular concepts of the, its types and divisions, and the role and the importance of the industry in the development as well as the strategies of manufacturing, its mechanisms and its advantages and disadvantages, besides the structure and basis of the industry. The third chapter presents a brief history of the industrial sector in Palestine since the British Mandate from (1922) until (2014). It also reviewed the obstacles, opportunities and challenges that faced the sector. The methodology and procedures of the study were reviewed in the fourth chapter. The results of the study and their discussion were reviewed in the fifth chapter. Chapter six is totally devoted to the conclusions and proposals. The multi-systemic (multi-method), represented by the descriptive and analytical (content analysis) and correlative was used in data analysis as an approach in the study in order to examine the relationships between variables, and to express it quantitatively and qualitatively to arrive at conclusions and generalizations that help to explain the studied reality, and predicting its variables. The historical approach in the study of historical data and the analysis of its content was used along with the qualitative method (qualitative) were used through the analysis of industry indicators from the years (1994-2014). The data was collected, examined, classified and scheduled so as to make it easier to deal with by a computer and processed statistically using the processing tables program (Excel), calculate averages, percentages, totals, percentage change rates, and average. The research depended on analyzing the reality of the manufacturing industries in order to determine the energies that were disrupted, to identify ways to help develop this sector due to its importance to the development and analysis of trends and relationships, and to set the different forecasts under three scenarios. First, maintain the status quo during the beginning of the establishment of the Palestinian National Authority, where the rate of employment in the manufacturing industries in (1997), as the base year, was (12.5%), and the rate of employment growth in manufacturing industries was 6%. Second, achieving growth after the establishment of the Palestinian National Authority, where the rate of employment in the manufacturing industries in (1997), as the base year, was (12.5%), and the rate of employment growth in the manufacturing industries with the unemployment rate of (8%). Third, achieving growth after the establishment of the Palestinian National Authority with its control over its resources, and the achievement of operating average in the manufacturing industries at a rate of (18%) like Independent States that has a good control over their resources such as the Kingdom of Jordan, where rate of unemployment in its manufacturing industries is (8%). The study has arrived at several findings, conclusions and proposals. The results have confirmed, in general, the level of alienation and disruption in manufacturing industries and their impact on economic development was significant according to all scenarios that have been applied. The results were consistent with international studies and reports. The most significant results are: • The ratio of disruption among the workforce amounted to about (46%) out of the total employed in manufacturing industries according to the first scenario. However, the rate according to the second scenario was (84%) and of about (167%) according to the third scenario. • The percentage of alienation and disruption in production volume was about (47%) of the total manufacturing output according to the first scenario and at a rate of about (88%) in accordance with the second scenario. According to the third scenario the rate was around (170%). • It was found that worker productivity was the largest in the manufacturing of tobacco products, paper products industry, manufacturing of rubber and plastics products, followed by food products and beverages industry, followed by the furniture industry, the garment industry, metals industry, and manufacturing of materials and chemical products. • The percentage of alienation and disruption in the contribution of manufacturing to GDP is about (47%) of the overall contribution of manufacturing industries to GDP according to the first scenario and around (85%) according to the second scenario as well as a rate of about (166%) according to the third scenario. • The percentage of alienation and disruption in capital formation, and this demonstrates the size of investments disrupted, about (128%) according to the first scenario, a rate of about (187%) according to the second scenario, and at a rate of about 312% according to the third scenario. • The percentage of alienation and disruption in the possibility of reducing imports, and thus their replacement by increasing local production was about (42%) of total imports with a total reached (1856) million dollars according to the first scenario, it was about (76%), and the total reached (3418) million dollars, according to the second scenario, and it was about (150%), and it amounted to a total of (6584) million dollars, according to the third scenario. •The percentage of alienation and disruption in raising the value of exports was about (47%), of the total exports, according to the first scenario, was around (85%), according to the second scenario, and at a rate of about (166%), according to the third scenario. • It was found that the manufacturing of food products and beverages, manufacturing of rubber and plastics products, other non-metallic mineral products industry, and the furniture industry accounted for the bulk of exports followed by tobacco products industry, tanning industry and dressing of leather and manufacture of bags, shoes, wood products industry, chemicals and chemical products, manufacture of basic metals, metal products industry, except machines, and the furniture industry. • It was found that the manufacturing industries have a significant or noticeable ability to replace the imported goods as indicated by the results of the study, especially in certain industrial activities (food products and beverages industry, industry of rubber and plastics products, and other non-metallic mineral products industry, the furniture industry, followed by tobacco products industry, tanning industry and dressing of leather and manufacture of bags, shoes, wood products industry, industry, chemicals and chemical products, manufacture of basic metals, metal products industry, except machines, and the furniture industry), which requires a focus on its development and support. • It was found that the ability of the Palestinian economy, if it regains its resources, according to the third scenario, and has a national and independent control over them, the GNP could reach to (18500) million dollars, based on the analogy of the reality of the Jordanian economy as a similar economy, where the ratio of the contribution of the manufacturing industries to the GDP reached (20%).
بناء المؤسسات والتنمية البشرية , Institutional Building & Human Res. Dev.